I'll say upfront that my credibility on some of these is going to be weak, since I haven't seen every nominated film. However, I have seen several, and I'm an avid enough observer of the cultural zeitgeist that I can pretty well gauge a film or actor's chances based on buzz. Does that make me an infallible film critic? No. Does it matter since no one is providing oversight of my "work" here? Also no. So read on, and challenge my picks if you feel I'm being an idiot. Or, you know, praise them if you think I'm spot on. Whatever.